Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings — Adj EPS $0.48 Beats ($0.45 Est) · Revenue $28.05B · CapEx Guide Cut $25B→$20B

What Happened

Tesla (TSLA) reported Q3 2026 results. Key metrics:

- Adjusted EPS: $0.48 (consensus $0.45, +7% beat)

- Revenue: $28.05B

- Net Income: $787M (-43% YoY — primarily non-cash items)

- Energy segment revenue: $4.6B (+50% YoY, record quarter)

- Services & Other: $3.5B (+26% YoY)

- CapEx annual guidance: $25B → $20B (cut)

- FSD active users: 1.7M+

The adjusted EPS beat surprised markets positively. Revenue of $28.05B keeps Tesla on a $100B+ annualized run rate. The net income decline reflects non-cash fair-value changes in convertible notes and derivatives — not operating deterioration.

Segment Breakdown

Automotive delivered approximately 469,000 vehicles in Q3, led by Model Y's refreshed variants gaining traction in China and Europe. Cybertruck production has stabilized around 20,000 units per quarter. ASP dipped slightly quarter-over-quarter, but rising FSD software attach rates are expanding per-vehicle software contribution.

Energy hit a record quarter. Megapack deliveries grew 50%+ year-over-year, absorbing grid-scale storage demand that has been building for two years. The Lathrop Megafactory reached full capacity in Q2 and contributed fully in Q3. Energy segment gross margins of 25–27% now exceed automotive margins — a structural shift in Tesla's profit mix.

Services & Other ($3.5B) was driven by Supercharging fees, FSD subscriptions, and software sales. FSD's 1.7M active subscribers at $99–199/month represent a $2–4B annualized recurring revenue stream.

Why CapEx Cut Matters

The $20B CapEx guidance reduction signals Tesla is shifting from expansion to efficiency. With Cybertruck in production, Cybercab launch preparation underway, and Gigafactory Texas at scale, the heaviest capital deployment phase is winding down. FCF improvement is the near-term result — opening room for buybacks or debt reduction.

Analyst Views

Wedbush (Dan Ives) maintains $600 target, calling the CapEx cut a rational move to build financial strength ahead of Cybercab and Optimus commercialization. FSD's 1.7M user count validates the software flywheel.

Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas) holds $415 base, $610 bull. Notes the EPS beat helps investor confidence but flags non-cash volatility as a persistent earnings-quality concern. Views energy segment acceleration as a positive structural development.