SPCX — Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas: Attractive Entry · $135/share
Published · Updated · By Investus editorial desk (SUNRYU Partners)
Per Sawyer Merritt citing Adam Jonas's new Barchart note: recent SPCX drawdown disconnects from fundamentals · sub-$120 is attractive entry · core Space+Connectivity alone worth ~$135/share. Grok/Cursor/Neocloud optionality is upside on top. First explicit bull thesis from a large house after the -49% drawdown.
Adam Jonas Note Core
Per Sawyer Merritt citing Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas's new Barchart note:
- Recent SPCX drawdown disconnects from fundamentals, creating attractive entry
- Sub-$120 is a buy zone
- Core business alone (Space Launch + Satellite Connectivity) worth ~$135/share
- Grok (xAI partnership), Cursor, Neocloud etc. as separate optionality upside
- SpaceX has dominant moats across launch, connectivity, and AI
- YTD, ~24% of global mass to orbit is SpaceX
Why This Note Matters
(1) First explicit bull thesis from a large house given SPCX -49% from June ATH (per yesterday's report), (2) signals now stack across analyst individual view (Munster), prediction market (Kalshi), institutional note (Jonas), (3) $135/share implies upside vs current price.
Layered Valuation Frame
Jonas's frame separates asset value in layers:
- **Level 1 (Core)**: Space Launch + Satellite Connectivity alone ~$135
- **Level 2 (Optionality)**: Grok · Cursor · Neocloud adds
- **Level 3 (Merger)**: TSLA merger scenario is its own axis
Each level realizing sequentially expands the upside.
Watch Next
(1) Formal MS PT registration, (2) follow-on notes from other large houses (Goldman/JPM/BofA), (3) institutional flow response (13F, ARK buys), (4) impact of today's Starship V3 flight outcome on valuation.
Sources & further reading
See the body and ticker IR links for sources on this note.
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Disclaimer
This article is editorial research for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and does not guarantee any return. Markets carry risk of loss. Verify figures against the primary sources before making decisions.