SPCX 328M share unlock tradeable Oct 26 — 1.3B already released Oct 22 · ~3.7B cumulative · merger + 10GW premium is the absorber
Published · Updated · By Investus editorial desk (SUNRYU Partners)
SpaceX lock-up on 328.4M shares expired Saturday Oct 24, making them tradeable starting Monday Oct 26. Three trading days earlier, on Oct 22, the largest single batch (1.3B shares, earnings-linked) was already released — the stock held on earnings beat and merger momentum. Total post-IPO unlocked shares: ~3.7B (~42% of shares outstanding). Whether the Oct 26 supply causes pressure depends on whether Q1'27 guidance ($33–37B vs $22B consensus) and TSLA-SPCX merger premium absorb the selling.
What Happened
On Saturday Oct 24, the lock-up expiry date for 328.4 million SPCX shares arrived. Since markets are closed Saturdays, the shares become eligible for trading on Monday Oct 26 at open. Three trading days prior, on Oct 22, a much larger batch — 1.3 billion shares, the largest single lock-up expiry since IPO — was released simultaneously with the Q3 earnings announcement. The stock absorbed the supply and moved higher on the earnings beat and merger committee announcement.
Post-IPO lock-up schedule summary: initial 2.1B shares (early employees/institutions) released shortly after IPO; August batch (first tranche); Oct 22: 1.3B shares (earnings-linked, largest single); Oct 24 Saturday: 328M (trades Oct 26); next estimated tranche ~Nov 8. Cumulative unlocked: ~3.7B shares, approximately 42% of outstanding shares. The share float has been expanding rapidly since IPO.
SPCX closed at ~$147 on Oct 23, slightly off the Oct 22 high of $149. The stock absorbing 1.3B shares without breaking down is strong evidence the market is pricing the Q1'27 revenue guide and merger path with high conviction.
More Context
Lock-up impact depends on market absorption capacity, not just supply size. The Oct 22 event demonstrated that even 1.3B shares can be absorbed when the fundamental catalysts are strong enough. The Oct 26 tranche at 328M shares is ~25% the size of the Oct 22 event — relatively manageable. However, if macro conditions deteriorate or short-term profit-taking overlaps, it could add downward pressure. The next lock-up (~Nov 8, ~200M est.) is the next milestone to watch.
The core long thesis hasn't changed: Q1'27 guide $33–37B (+50–68% vs $22B consensus), annualized $132–148B, already past $100B run-rate threshold. JPMorgan $500 target at 10GW AI compute: ~$400B ARR.
Key View
BofA: Buy, raised to $275 (from $235) — '$100B run-rate approaching reality within 2026.' JPMorgan: $500 target, estimates doubled — 10GW AI by 2027, ARR ~$400B. Deutsche Bank: SuperIntelligence segment $70–80B annually by 2027. Short-term lock-up noise does not change the fundamental thesis. Some institutional buyers view lock-up-driven dips as entry opportunities in a structurally re-rating stock.
Sources & further reading
See the body and ticker IR links for sources on this note.
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Disclaimer
This article is editorial research for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and does not guarantee any return. Markets carry risk of loss. Verify figures against the primary sources before making decisions.