TSLA·SPCX Merger Odds — Kalshi 74% Within a Year · Record High (Skyrocketing)
Published · Updated · By Investus editorial desk (SUNRYU Partners)
Per TheSonOfWalkey with Kalshi data: odds TSLA·SPCX merge within the next year skyrocket to 74% — a record high. Pattern: Munster individual 90% → Kalshi before 2028 79% → today within 1 yr 74%. Reinforced by GOOGL SPCX $94.1B re-mark, all-in Starship etc.
Kalshi Data Detail
Today from TheSonOfWalkey on Kalshi prediction market: odds TSLA·SPCX merge within the next year skyrocket to 74% — record high. Description: 'skyrocketing.'
Recent Days' Odds Flow
- **7/23 (Deepwater's Munster individual view)**: 90% (specific scenario/structure assumed)
- **7/24 (Kalshi prediction market)**: 79% (before 2028)
- **Today (Kalshi prediction market)**: 74% (within 1 year)
Tighter Window, But Probability Doesn't Drop Much
Generally (1) wider window = higher probability, (2) prediction markets are more conservative than analyst individual views. But today:
- **74% within 1 year** vs 79% before 2028 → probability barely drops despite tightening window = market sees merger as imminent
- **'Skyrocketing'** = sharp rise in recent days
Events triggering the surge:
1. **GOOGL SPCX $94.1B re-mark**: validates SPCX stake value → basis for merger acquisition value calculation
2. **All-in Starship decision (7/25)**: SPCX business focus clarified
3. **Adam Jonas $135 buy call (7/25)**: First explicit bull thesis from a large house
4. **Musk Starlink thank-you (today)**: multiplanetary frame re-emphasized
As these events accumulate, market increasingly trusts the merger scenario.
Substantive Merger Risks
74% or 90% still have substantive risks:
- **No Musk official announcement**: no explicit merger plan announced at any point
- **Unknown structure**: TSLA absorbs SPCX vs SPCX absorbs TSLA vs new holdco
- **Shareholder approvals**: both TSLA and SPCX shareholder votes
- **Deal mix**: cash vs stock vs mixed
- **Regulatory approval**: antitrust (FTC) · SEC
- **Valuation**: exchange ratio calculation
Watch Next
(1) Musk official announcement, (2) Kalshi odds continued rise vs correction, (3) correlation between TSLA/SPCX individual earnings flow and merger odds.
Sources & further reading
See the body and ticker IR links for sources on this note.
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Disclaimer
This article is editorial research for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and does not guarantee any return. Markets carry risk of loss. Verify figures against the primary sources before making decisions.